A
ccording to Mike Simonsen, chief economist at Compass, the housing market is poised for a turnaround in 2026 after years of stagnation. Rising demand had outpaced modest supply growth, driving prices higher and pushing many potential buyers away. Now, with incomes climbing faster than home values, affordability is improving, and sales are beginning to climb while price growth slows or even reverses. Simonsen told CNBC that this marks the start of a new era, though the improvement is modest.
Redfin’s recent analysis echoes this view, forecasting a “Great Housing Reset” in 2026 driven by stronger earnings and softer prices. The market has also seen a surge in delistings—owner‑occupied homes pulled from the market—up 47% in June versus a year earlier. Simonsen notes that these withdrawals signal latent demand: homeowners who want to move but must first sell their current property. He estimates about 150,000 such owners, many of whom have postponed moves for years.
The outlook does not hinge on a sharp drop in mortgage rates; in fact, a steep decline could trigger overheating. Simonsen expects rates to hover in the low‑6% range, which should support sales growth while keeping prices in check as inventory rises.
Signs of a buyer‑friendly environment are already visible. Over half of U.S. homes have lost value in the past year, yet the median appreciation since the last sale remains 67%, according to Zillow. A separate Zillow report shows buyers securing record discounts—average $10,000 off, with cumulative cuts reaching $25,000 in October—as sellers, buoyed by high equity, offer multiple reductions to attract buyers.
“Homeowners can still walk away with a profit after a price cut, and these discounts bring listings into buyers’ budgets, fueling the most active fall market in three years,” said Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. “Patient buyers are reaping the benefits as the market rebalances.”
Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit, May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here, and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this high‑energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine the future of work. Register now.
