T
alk to brokers around New York City, and there's a sense that the expected fall frenzy was cut short by stubborn interest rates and election jitters. Despite this, the past few months have seen a return to normalcy in the market. According to Miller Samuel's report for Douglas Elliman, contracts in Manhattan and Brooklyn rose 43% in October, reaching 1,336 from last year's 940.

    Since July, contracts have increased by at least 35% year-over-year each month. This bounce back from the low point of 2023 indicates that while contracts aren't breaking records, they're "the beginning of a return to more normalized activity," says report author Jonathan Miller. Manhattan saw 836 contracts in October, up 36% year-over-year and slightly higher than its monthly average in 2019.

    The steady uptick hasn't been derailed by mortgage rates that rose over the second half of September and October to end at 6.72%. Miller attributes the strong demand to New York City being out of sync with the rest of the country following the pandemic, noting that buyers here had less time to make deals compared to other areas.

    Contract growth was seen across nearly every property type in Manhattan and Brooklyn. In Manhattan, co-op contracts dominated the low-end market, growing 40% year-over-year to 281 from 200 for units under $1 million. Condos led the luxury space with an 84% increase in contracts signed over $4 million.

    In Brooklyn, co-op contracts grew 63%, condo contracts rose 46%, and one- to three-family home contracts increased 58% year-over-year. Luxury townhouse contracts doubled since last October, reaching 58. However, listings growth didn't keep pace with demand, with new listings remaining essentially flat year-over-year across Brooklyn and Manhattan. Condo listings were the only type to grow substantially, increasing 14% thanks in part to the launch of new developments like One Williamsburg Wharf and 255 East 77th Street.