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overnment operations have resumed, but the backlog from the shutdown still weighs on the market. Consumers remain cautious, yet mortgage purchase applications rose 6 % week‑over‑week, hinting at growing confidence now that the federal pause is over. With rates still relatively low and new listings climbing, buyers can enter a market where competition is lighter.
Economic uncertainty keeps the real estate sector on hold, but the end of the shutdown may spark a temporary uptick. Realtor.com’s senior economist Anthony Smith noted that as government agencies reopen—especially those handling home‑loan programs—delayed closings should start to surface. He cautioned that a full rebound will be gradual, stretched over weeks, due to accumulated backlogs, wary buyers, and lasting economic damage. Normalcy may take time, as uncertainty lingers until long‑term appropriations are finalized.
During the shutdown, activity stalled. Redfin reported that pending sales for the four weeks ending November 9 fell year‑over‑year, and homes lingered on the market for a median of 49 days—the longest stretch for this season since 2019. Still, mortgage applications edged up for the week ending November 7, likely spurred by the shutdown’s conclusion. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted purchase index climbed 6 % from the prior week, despite a modest rise in rates. Refinancing applications dipped, leaving overall activity roughly flat. Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at MBA, called this the strongest start to November since 2022.
Mortgage rates remain attractive. The 30‑year fixed averaged 6.24 % this week, up slightly from 6.22 % the week before, but far below the 6.78 % seen a year ago. Freddie Mac’s survey confirms that the end‑of‑year spike seen in recent years has not materialized. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, notes that uncertainty is a double‑edged sword: while economic concerns and waning confidence have kept many buyers on the sidelines, the prospect of continued volatility in 2026 may prompt some to act now to lock in lower rates and greater inventory.
Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage, urges consumers to stay ready, citing the current rate environment as a real window for buyers and refinancers. He reminds that future Fed moves will be data‑driven, so being alert and prepared can make a difference.
Inventory remains relatively flat over the winter holiday season, yet it is up 6.3 % year‑over‑year, with new listings rising 3.4 % per Redfin. W.J. Eulberg, a Redfin Premier agent in Milwaukee, advises that those who can afford a home should consider entering the market now, when competition is low and sellers are often willing to negotiate on price or offer concessions such as covering closing costs.
