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Market analysis··3 min read

US commercial real estate between record deals and market normalisation

Multi-billion-dollar transactions in New York and Florida contrast with rising interest rates and selective dampening in quarterly figures.

AI generatedUS commercial real estate between record deals and market normalisation – AI-generated illustrative image
US commercial real estate between record deals and market normalisation. Illustrative image generated using artificial intelligence (AI). The image does not depict a real property, person or event and is not a documentary photograph. Labelled in accordance with Article 50(4) of the EU AI Act.

Diverging dynamics are currently emerging across the US property market. On the one hand, large-volume transactions demonstrate the ongoing confidence of institutional players. Ken Griffin of Citadel, alongside Vornado Realty Trust and Rudin, secured $3.3 billion in construction financing for the planned 66-storey project at 350 Park Avenue in New York City. In parallel, residential REIT UDR agreed a $2 billion joint venture with Apollo Global Management covering 19 residential communities totalling 7,059 units. Apollo is committing approximately $1.34 billion in equity, whilst UDR will oversee property management.

At the same time, however, signs of a moderation following previous peaks are mounting. In Manhattan investment sales, the past quarter recorded a 27 per cent decline in the number of transactions to 87 sales. Nevertheless, monetary volume finished 4 per cent above the prior-year period. Brandon Polakoff of Avison Young pointed out that, despite these headwinds, Manhattan remained on track to surpass the full year 2025. In the office segment, certain landlords are deliberately withholding contiguous large floor plates to meet demand from well-capitalised tenants for rare prime space. Tenant concessions have declined noticeably compared with their peak in 2024.

Mixed quarterly results from major investors

The latest quarterly reports from leading financial groups reflect the demanding financing environment. Blackstone posted a profit decline of just over 9 per cent. In addition, a $1.3 billion CMBS loan held by the firm for multi-family assets across the Sun Belt and the Seattle area was transferred into special servicing. Stephen Schwarzman noted during the analyst conference that the third quarter of 2026 was shaped by a historic surge in global bond yields, with US Treasuries touching multi-year highs. The elevated cost of capital had weighed on transaction activity and created market volatility.

Other industry players proved more resilient. CBRE lifted net income in the third quarter by 22 per cent year-on-year to $443 million, up from $363 million in the prior-year period, whilst revenue grew by 13 per cent. The company also acquired London-based data centre infrastructure provider Onnec Group for $610 million. SL Green Realty responded to muted leasing activity with asset sales: the property at 10 East 53rd Street went to Meadow Partners for $312.2 million, whilst 110 Greene Street was sold to Natora Group for $226 million. Marc Holliday, Chief Executive Officer of SL Green, emphasised that targeted interest rate hedges had significantly cushioned the impact of rates rising by around 150 basis points.

Thriving market conditions in South Florida

In sharp contrast to the caution observed in the north, the South Florida market continues to see robust confidence among developers and investors. Alongside prestigious prime residential schemes such as Dezer Development's Bentley tower or Nahla Capital's Raleigh, the region recorded substantial commercial completions:

  • —Related Ross acquired the 380,823-square-foot North 40 office complex in Boca Raton for $64 million.
  • —Grover Corlew invested $69.7 million in the 200 East Broward property in Fort Lauderdale.
  • —Genting Americas completed a $500 million refinancing for the Omni Center near Downtown Miami.

Whilst prime developments in Midtown Manhattan are selectively securing record financing and Florida benefits from steady capital inflows, prevailing interest rate levels across the country are compelling institutional owners toward defensive reallocations and meticulous risk management.

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Michael Freitag
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