The German property investment market is predominantly characterised by voluntary disposals. An analysis by JLL, which examined transaction volumes for the period from 2024 to mid-2026 amounting to almost EUR 87 billion, confirms that over 70 per cent of all property sales are made by choice. For more than three quarters of the analysed sales volume, the specific sales motives of market participants could be clearly identified.
The analysis differentiated between voluntary disposals, sales due to financial pressure, and transactions resulting from insolvency proceedings. It emerged that situations of financial pressure, which accounted for 17 per cent of the volume, or insolvency proceedings, at ten per cent, were decisive for only slightly more than a quarter of the transaction volume. Konstantin Kortmann, CEO JLL Germany and Head of Capital Markets, summarises the results by explaining that most sellers operate strategically and autonomously, even in a market characterised by hesitancy and difficult sales processes since 2022, although profit expectations are often dampened.
Motives and Segment Specifics
The reasons for voluntary sales are manifold. The fulfilment of one's own business plan, for example through the planned sale of a completed development project or the disposal of a property at the end of a closed fund's term, represents the primary motivation at 41 per cent. Adjusting the investment strategy follows at 30 per cent, succeeded by individual opportunities at 27 per cent. Realising hidden reserves, at two per cent, is a comparatively rare reason, but according to Kortmann, it can be a relevant motivation, particularly for companies, to sell properties that are essential or no longer essential for operations.
Looking at asset classes, the logistics sector shows the highest proportion of voluntary disposals at 87 per cent. The office segment follows with 76 per cent, living with 70 per cent, and retail with 66 per cent. In the living segment, the highest proportion of sales due to financial pressure was recorded at almost 30 per cent. Insolvency sales occurred most frequently in retail, attributable to the impact of the Signa collapse, affecting 26 per cent in this segment.
Impact of Financing and Seller Groups
Among seller groups, the proportion of sales under financial pressure for open-ended public property funds is strikingly high at 93 per cent of the sales volume. Asset and fund managers, developers, companies, and private investors, conversely, primarily conducted voluntary disposals, each with over 80 per cent. Kortmann explains that since 2024, cash inflows into open-ended property funds have been negative, forcing the funds to generate liquidity through property sales. Given ongoing outflows, further sales are expected.
Property sales are also accelerated by financing problems, for instance, when refinancing does not provide sufficient debt capital or costs have risen disproportionately. Eleven per cent of the registered sales volume from 2024 to the end of June 2026 resulted from financial pressure from debt providers. Matthias Barthauer, Lead Director Research JLL Germany, forecasts a refinancing gap of approximately EUR 4 billion for the office market in 2026, which is expected to close in the coming years. From 2028, sufficient debt capital should again be available to avoid additional sales pressure from this side.
- —More forced sales are expected in the further course of 2026.
- —However, many of these transactions will take place in structured processes and without acute time pressure.
- —Forced sales are also foreseeable for 2027.
- —Renewed economic growth and investments from the special infrastructure fund should stimulate transaction activity from this point onwards and reduce the proportion of forced sales.
