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Market analysis··3 min read

Vonovia: Solid Business Development in the First Half of 2026

Vonovia recorded robust development in its core segments of rental and residential-related services in the first half of 2026, while sales-oriented segments faced a challenging market environment.

AI generatedVonovia: Solid Business Development in the First Half of 2026 – AI-generated illustrative image
Vonovia: Solid Business Development in the First Half of 2026. Illustrative image generated using artificial intelligence (AI). The image does not depict a real property, person or event and is not a documentary photograph. Labelled in accordance with Article 50(4) of the EU AI Act.

In the first half of 2026, Vonovia presented stable business figures. The company benefited from sustained high demand for affordable housing, which stimulated growth in its core rental business (Rental segment) and residential-related services (Value-add segment). In contrast, the new construction (Development segment) and housing privatisation (Recurring Sales segment) segments showed less dynamism due to the demanding market environment. Nevertheless, the valuation of the real estate portfolio continued its positive trend.

For the full year 2026, Vonovia reaffirmed its forecasts for all relevant earnings indicators, and the outlook for 2028 remained unchanged. Vonovia’s CEO, Luka Mucic, stated that the strong performance in the core rental and value-add businesses was able to compensate for the slower pace of sales activities. He expects an acceleration in new construction and housing privatisation in the second half of the year. The strategic focus remains on reliable growth in the core business, increasing results in the additional segments (Non-rental), and strengthening the balance sheet structure.

Adjusted EBITDA in the rental business rose by 3.5 percent to EUR 1,268.6 million in the first half of 2026, although the portfolio comprised approximately 5,000 fewer dwellings compared to the same period last year. This underscores the resilience of Vonovia's largest segment. Organic rental growth was 3.6 percent, primarily influenced by market rent growth (2.1 percent), investments in modernisation (1.2 percent), and new construction activity (0.3 percent). The vacancy rate remained at 2.3 percent, and the payment rate at 99.6 percent. In the Value-Add segment, adjusted EBITDA increased by 27.6 percent to EUR 128.5 million, largely driven by higher contributions from the tradesmen organisation and growth in the energy business. Investments in modernisation and new construction rose by 10.7 percent to EUR 553.6 million.

The sales-oriented segments continued to operate in a challenging market environment, as buyers were hesitant to make investment decisions. The Recurring Sales segment nevertheless achieved a slightly higher adjusted EBITDA of EUR 39.3 million, a plus of 1.6 percent, despite lower sales volumes. An average gross margin of 43.8 percent, significantly higher than the previous year's figure, compensated for the lower sales numbers. For 2026, Vonovia expects moderate earnings growth in adjusted EBITDA. In new construction, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 20.1 million. Adjusting for a large land sale in the first quarter of 2025 shows that the result in the Development segment was above the previous year's figure in both the first half and the second quarter. For the full year 2026, a contribution to adjusted EBITDA at the previous year's level is expected.

Adjusted EBITDA rose by 2.4 percent to EUR 1,456.5 million in the first half of 2026. Adjusted EBT fell by 2.6 percent to EUR 962.3 million, primarily due to higher financing costs. Adjusted period earnings for shareholders amounted to EUR 771.6 million, a decrease of 4.9 percent, or EUR 0.91 per share, a decrease of 7.7 percent. This resulted from a higher share of minorities. Operating free cash flow reached EUR 607.5 million, a decrease of 45.4 percent, significantly influenced by temporary effects in net working capital and dividend payments, with stable operating results.

The comprehensive portfolio valuation as at 30 June 2026 showed a value increase of 1.1 percent excluding investments and 1.8 percent including investments. The fair value of the real estate portfolio reached EUR 81.8 billion with an initial gross yield of 4.3 percent. EPRA NTA remained almost constant at EUR 39.2 billion or EUR 46.22 per share.

Vonovia pursued a proactive financing strategy in the first half of 2026. In June, the company placed a convertible bond of EUR 850 million with a five-year maturity and a zero coupon. In total, approximately EUR 4.4 billion has been refinanced since the beginning of the year, with an average maturity of about eight years and an average Euro coupon of around 3.2 percent. Through active liability management of EUR 1.5 billion, bond maturities for 2027 and 2028 were covered early. Key debt ratios as at 30 June 2026 included an LTV of 46 percent, a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 14.0x, and an ICR of 3.6x. The increase in LTV and the net debt to EBITDA ratio compared to year-end 2025 is due to the dividend payment in the second quarter. Compared to the first half of 2025, the LTV decreased by 130 basis points.

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