Demand in the nationwide market for warehouse and logistics space continues to prove robust. After the first nine months of 2026, space turnover totals 5.5 million square metres. This represents an increase of 28 per cent compared to the same period last year and surpasses the ten-year average by nine per cent. Market activity has steadily increased over the course of the year, reflected in a successive rise in quarterly results. The third quarter, in particular, contributed significantly to this growth with a volume of just under 2.2 million square metres, an increase of 23 per cent compared to the second quarter, marking the highest result since the second quarter of 2022. These data are based on an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
The continuous increase in space turnover is observed despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, characterised by moderate economic development, the Iran war and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increased energy prices, rising inflation, US customs policy, and the war in Ukraine. Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, attributes the current dynamic to key drivers. These include logistics service providers who handle business for both e-commerce companies from Asia and established large corporations. Additionally, companies from the defence sector, as well as manufacturing companies optimising or expanding their structures, contribute significantly to the extensive space turnover. A significant increase in large-scale contract conclusions and a high number of deals compared to the previous year's period are notable.
Regional Development and Rents
Particularly noteworthy is the increase in turnover outside the major logistics hubs. These regions recorded a 51 per cent rise year-on-year and achieved the second-highest turnover of the last ten years. Their attractiveness stems from better space availability, especially in the large-scale segment, and a more favourable price level. In contrast, the top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig, and Munich) recorded a total volume of just under 1.7 million square metres, representing a decline of approximately five per cent compared to the previous year and falling eight per cent below the long-term average. The partly declining construction activity is noticeable in these markets, reflected in the lowest new construction share of space turnover in the last ten years (55 per cent nationwide). Cologne stands out with a doubling of the previous year's result to 247,000 square metres, and Hamburg recorded a slight increase of three per cent to 283,000 square metres. Frankfurt leads the ranking with 320,000 square metres, followed by Berlin with 298,000 square metres. The Ruhr Area achieved a record turnover of 484,000 square metres, 36 per cent above the previous year. Munich is particularly affected by the shortage of space, with 126,000 square metres and a decrease of 36 per cent, and has not yet seen any large-scale deals.
Logistics service providers dominate the industry distribution of space turnover with a market share of almost 45 per cent, accounting for 2.5 million square metres – the highest value in the last ten years. This is due to the increasing outsourcing of e-commerce business to service providers, which means the share of trading companies is only 15 per cent. Manufacturing companies contribute 31 per cent to the total turnover. Rental prices show an upward trend: prime rents increased by an average of 4.3 per cent and average rents by 4.9 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2025. Munich continues to achieve the highest prime rents at 11.25 EUR per square metre (+7 per cent), while other locations such as Frankfurt (9.00 EUR/m²), Düsseldorf (8.85 EUR/m²), Hamburg (8.80 EUR/m²), Cologne (8.60 EUR/m²), Berlin (8.30 EUR/m²), and the Ruhr Area (8.10 EUR/m²) are in the corridor between eight and nine EUR per square metre. Leipzig remains stable at 5.70 EUR per square metre.
The forecast suggests that geopolitical conditions will hardly change by the end of the year. Nevertheless, the German economy is showing a slight recovery, with an upwardly revised GDP forecast of 1.3 per cent. The logistics leasing market continues to show high dynamism, characterised by a large number of contract completions and a significantly higher volume of large-scale contracts from 20,000 square metres. This segment is crucial for the positive development compared to the previous year's result.
