The German investment market for retail properties shows a solid performance after the first three quarters of 2026. A transaction volume of approximately EUR 3.2 billion, spread across 169 deals, demonstrates continued activity in this asset class. This represents a decline of about a quarter compared to the same period last year, when EUR 4.2 billion was invested. However, the current transaction pipeline indicates a full-year volume between EUR 6 billion and EUR 6.5 billion, which would signify a clear stabilisation of the market and an approximation to the previous year's result.
Sarah Hoffmann, Head of Retail Investment Germany at JLL, stated that the high volume of supply from the second quarter was successfully absorbed, and almost all relevant processes experienced good to very good demand. Market-compliant asking prices were crucial for success. Expo Real led to further product launches which, according to JLL's assessment, should also be well-received by the market. The third quarter recorded a subdued result of just under EUR 900 million, which is below the annual average.
Market Structure and Investor Behaviour
A positive development is evident in the transaction structure: the five largest transactions reached a volume of approximately EUR 820 million, accounting for 25 per cent of the total volume. This is a significant decrease compared to 43 per cent in the previous year and points to broader market activity and a healthier distribution. Six transactions exceeded the EUR 100 million threshold, compared to five in the previous year. Ms Hoffmann analysed that the market is thus less dependent on individual large deals and rests on a broader base.
Asset and fund managers continue to be the most important buyer group with a market share of 34 per cent (EUR 1.1 billion), followed by private investors with 21 per cent (EUR 700 million). Notable is the increase in the share of developers to nine per cent, as well as the active participation of private equity/hedge funds with four per cent, indicating growing interest in value-add and opportunistic strategies. German investors dominate both on the buyer side (59 per cent, EUR 1.9 billion) and on the seller side (59 per cent, EUR 1.9 billion). The balance of foreign investments shows itself to be almost equalised with a reduction of only EUR 13 million.
Asset Classes and Yield Prospects
Retail park products dominate the market with an overall market share of 56 per cent. Food-anchored properties (LEH) account for 25 per cent, retail parks for 21 per cent, and individual non-food specialist stores for nine per cent. Shopping centres contribute 19 per cent to the transaction volume, and high street properties 15 per cent. The local supply segment remains in demand, with demand remaining stable despite an offering volume of over EUR 2 billion. Prime yields for individual non-food retail parks remained at 6.0 per cent in the third quarter. Retail parks and food-anchored retail parks were stable at 4.6 per cent.
The interest rate hike is also affecting this sought-after asset class. Select transactions at prime yield levels are observed, for which there continues to be high investor competition. Outside the absolute prime segment, increased interest rates have had a faster impact, leading to price adjustments across the entire market. JLL predicts a further price spread between core products and more average core-plus to core products. After three quarters, investors prefer security, with 44 per cent of investments in core properties and 38 per cent in core-plus. Value-add properties accounted for eleven per cent and opportunistic assets seven per cent, with the latter showing a slight increase compared to the half-year.
The strong demand for value-add portfolios in recent months was surprising and led to purchase price optimisations in sales processes. An excess of demand in this segment is noted due to a significant increase in international and national capital sources. Ms Hoffmann expects a transaction-rich year-end and a continued strong product offering for the next one to two years, also from necessary divestment programmes. The mood at Expo Real, the robust pipeline, and a broad investor base give cause for cautious optimism for the remainder of the year and for 2027.
