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s New York's real estate industry grapples with the prospect of Zohran Mamdani's mayoral win, South Florida is abuzz with excitement. The tri-county region is poised to welcome an influx of high net worth individuals and investors from New York, potentially sparking a second residential and commercial boom in the area. "This outcome will be extremely beneficial for all of South Florida," said Jaime Sturgis, a Fort Lauderdale-based broker. "New York's policy changes have driven investors out, and this may be the final straw."

    Florida's pro-business climate, with no personal state income tax and rent regulation ban, has long been an attractive alternative to New York's strict policies. Since Covid-19, South Florida has become a magnet for New Yorkers, supercharging its residential and commercial markets. Mamdani's calls for rent freezes and higher taxes are expected to amplify the influx of new residents.

    New York real estate investment trusts took a hit immediately after the primary results, with shares in top companies sliding on Wednesday. The industry is bracing for the fallout, with some predicting a surge in business and capital flight to South Florida. "We will see increased demand and more people looking to move here," said Alicia Cervera Lamadrid, managing partner at Miami-based Cervera Real Estate.

    Top luxury brokers are already seeing an uptick in interest from New Yorkers, with many planning to sell off their commercial assets and invest in South Florida properties. "My phone has been ringing nonstop since Tuesday night," said Sturgis. "This could be as strong or stronger than the domestic migration of wealth we saw post-Covid."

    While some experts predict a significant influx of new residents, others are more cautious. Ruthie Assouline, a New York and South Florida agent, believes that many New Yorkers will not leave their homes for Miami, citing entrenched lifestyles and a desire to stay in their schools and businesses.

    The election's impact on the rental market is also uncertain, with some predicting a decrease in demand due to employers calling workers back to the office. However, multifamily investors and developers are expected to leave New York due to Mamdani's proposal to freeze rents on rent-restricted apartments.

    High net worth individuals will still seek a Florida escape, as their wallets will be threatened by Mamdani's promise of a 2 percent city income tax on earners over $1 million. Yet, not everyone is convinced that New Yorkers will flock to South Florida if Mamdani wins. "That's not how New Yorkers operate," said Assouline. "They're entrenched in their lifestyle and won't leave easily."