M
ortgage rates have slipped to an average of 6.19% for the 30‑year fixed, the lowest level seen in 2025 and a drop from 6.23% last week. A year ago the average hovered near 6.69%. Despite the absence of fresh government labor and inflation figures—delayed by the federal shutdown—many market participants anticipate a 25‑basis‑point cut from the Federal Reserve on its December 9‑10 meeting, marking the third consecutive 25‑point reduction this year.
The Fed’s agenda will also include new economic projections, offering insight into officials’ outlook on growth and inflation. Investors’ confidence in a rate cut is already reflected in the downward drift of mortgage rates.
Labor market data remain mixed. ADP reports a 32,000‑job decline in private employment for November, with manufacturing, professional services and construction lagging. In contrast, the Department of Labor’s latest initial jobless‑claims figure fell to a three‑year low. The conflicting signals leave the trajectory of employment uncertain.
Housing supply and demand are both easing as the year ends. Redfin data show inventory rising only 5.1% year‑over‑year—the smallest gain in nearly two years—while pending sales for the four weeks ending November 30 fell 2.6% year‑over‑year, the steepest decline in eight months. Sellers still outnumber buyers, creating pockets of opportunity for buyers who approach negotiations strategically. In Los Angeles, Redfin’s Carlos Castillo notes that buyers can negotiate up to 4% below list price without being overly aggressive.
A December rate cut, widely expected by the market, could relieve pressure on mortgage rates as the year closes, enhancing purchasing power heading into 2026. Senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones of Realtor.com highlights that such a move would further ease borrowing costs, supporting home‑buying activity.
In sum, mortgage rates are near their lowest point of the year, the Fed is poised to cut rates again despite missing key data, and the winter slowdown is evident in inventory and sales trends. Buyers should remain strategic, leveraging the current supply‑demand imbalance while awaiting the Fed’s decision and its implications for the housing market.
